BMW PGA Championship Power Ranking 2026

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The market’s view of who wins — every golfer ranked by de-vigged consensus win probability across 2 sportsbooks with each board weighted by expected market efficiency. Not our opinion: the betting market's, with the bookmaker margin stripped out.

See the full odds grid →Odds movement →

1Rory McIlroy
7.5%+920
2Jon Rahm
5.2%+1329
3Ludvig Aberg
5.2%+1300
4Tommy Fleetwood
4.5%+1595
5Matt Fitzpatrick
4.5%+1500
6Viktor Hovland
3.4%+2000
7Joaquin Niemann
3.3%+2028
8Shane Lowry
2.6%+2500
9Robert MacIntyre
2.4%+2800
10Patrick Reed
2.2%+3000
11Adam Scott
2.2%+3604
12Alex Noren
2.2%+3746
13Tyrrell Hatton
2.0%+3500
14Justin Rose
2.0%+3500
15Ryan Gerard
2.0%+3500
16Matt Wallace
1.9%+3500
17Tom McKibbin
1.7%+4067
18Aaron Rai
1.7%+4000
19JJ Spaun
1.7%+4000
20Alex Smalley
1.4%+5000

Biggest market moves

Who the market is backing and fading, from our own odds history.

Steaming in ▼

Viktor Hovland4.5% → 5.3% (+0.7 pts)+2100 → +1800 · Caesars
Aaron Rai2.4% → 2.8% (+0.3 pts)+4000 → +3500 · Caesars
David Puig1.1% → 1.3% (+0.2 pts)+9000 → +7500 · Caesars
Shane Lowry3.8% → 4.0% (+0.2 pts)+2500 → +2400 · Caesars

Drifting out ▲

Jacob Skov Olesen1.8% → 1.5% (-0.3 pts)+5500 → +6500 · Caesars
Alex Smalley2.2% → 2.0% (-0.2 pts)+4500 → +5000 · Caesars
Kristoffer Reitan2.2% → 2.0% (-0.2 pts)+4500 → +5000 · Caesars
Ryan Fox2.2% → 2.0% (-0.2 pts)+4500 → +5000 · Caesars
Hennie Du Plessis0.99% → 0.79% (-0.2 pts)+10000 → +12500 · Caesars
Alex Fitzpatrick2.0% → 1.8% (-0.2 pts)+5000 → +5500 · FanDuel

Win probabilities are derived by removing each book's margin and blending the active sportsbook boards — see our methodology. GolfOdds.