Sam Burns Leads Open Championship into Final Round, Contenders Eye Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale

Sam Burns holds a two-shot lead at 10-under-par 210 heading into the final round of The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. His presence in the tournament was a last-minute decision, made possible after his daughter, Belle, arrived early on July 3, allowing him to travel to England. Burns posted a 65 in the third round, following a record-tying 8-under 62 in the second, marking the lowest consecutive 36 holes in major championship history.

Burns, currently priced at +2500 (Bovada), is closely pursued by Si Woo Kim and Ryan Fox, both tied at 8-under. Fox notably climbed 50 spots on the leaderboard with a third-round 62. History suggests that the Open champion typically comes from within three shots of the 54-hole lead. This group includes Kim, available at +3000 (FanDuel), and Fox, whose odds are +822 (Pinnacle). Only 13 times has a player come back from four or more shots to win, with Cameron Smith's 2022 victory at St. Andrews being the most recent instance.

Further down the leaderboard, Ryan Gerard and Lucas Herbert are tied at 7-under. Herbert also recorded a 62 in the second round. These players are within the historical top-four on the leaderboard from which Open champions often emerge. Gerard is listed at +100000 (FanDuel), while Herbert is available at +100000 (FanDuel). The Open winner typically starts the final round in the top-four, a category these five players currently occupy.

Jackson Suber, despite an even-par 70 in the third round, remains four strokes back at 6-under. His odds are currently +100000 (Bovada). While a four-shot deficit is historically challenging, it is not unprecedented. For context, Francesco Molinari, who won from outside the top-four in 2018, is listed at +225000 (DraftKings). The largest comeback in Open history was Paul Lawrie's 10-shot deficit in 1999. Cameron Smith, the last to win from four or more shots back, is currently +12500 (FanDuel).