Wind and History Set to Make Shinnecock Hills a Brutal U.S. Open Test
High winds and a preserved, historic layout at Shinnecock Hills are expected to push scores over par, favoring players who can handle extreme conditions.
The 126th U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills is shaping up to be one of the most grueling tests in recent major championship history. While the historic Long Island venue has famously resisted major design changes over the decades, preserving its classic bunkering and layout, the elements are set to provide the ultimate defense. Early-week practice rounds saw howling winds that forced some players to skip their sessions entirely, signaling a brutal four days ahead for the field.
A Forecast of Howling Winds
Weather forecasts indicate steady winds of 15 to 20 mph throughout the week, with Thursday bringing gusts up to 29 mph alongside a 48 percent chance of rain. Friday and Saturday will offer little relief, with gusts projected to reach 26 mph and 31 mph respectively. The heavy gusts have already forced officials to reconsider green speeds. Rory McIlroy +1200 (BetRivers), who was spotted practicing without a hat in the heavy breeze, noted that Monday's gusts of 25 to 30 mph made it impossible for balls to remain stationary on the par-3 11th green. "I think with the wind they're expecting on Thursday, I'd say it seems they'd want to get the greens back to the 10s," McIlroy said, urging caution in the setup.
This extreme weather will only amplify a course where scoring under par is historically rare. Over the last century, only three players have managed to finish under par during a major championship at Shinnecock Hills. When the tournament was last held here in 2018, Brooks Koepka +4977 (Pinnacle) claimed the trophy with a winning score of one-over par. That year was defined by extreme conditions that led Zach Johnson +75000 (DraftKings) to famously declare that the USGA had "lost the golf course," while Phil Mickelson +40000 (BetMGM) made headlines for hitting a moving ball on his way to a 16-over finish.
Survival of the Patient
For players who thrive when conditions deteriorate, the forecast is a welcome challenge. Matt Fitzpatrick +2250 (DraftKings), who tied for 12th at Shinnecock in 2018 and won the U.S. Open in 2022, expressed a preference for the difficult setup. "I don't particularly like playing birdie-fests," Fitzpatrick remarked, hoping the course dries out and plays as firm as possible. Defending champion JJ Spaun +17500 (FanDuel), who won last year's U.S. Open at Oakmont as the only player under par, also understands the patience required. With Shinnecock's preserved layout and the impending wind, the winner of the 126th U.S. Open will likely be the player who can best survive the elements rather than conquer them.
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FAQ
- What is the weather forecast for the 2026 U.S. Open?
- Temperatures are expected to range from 78 to 84 degrees, with a 48 percent chance of rain on Thursday. However, wind will be the primary factor, blowing steadily at 15 to 20 mph with gusts reaching up to 31 mph during the week.
- How many players have finished under par at Shinnecock Hills?
- Over the last 100 years, only three players have finished under par during a major championship at Shinnecock Hills.
- Who won the last U.S. Open held at Shinnecock Hills?
- Brooks Koepka won the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, finishing with a winning score of one-over par.