The Open Championship Odds Movement 2026
FinalJul 16–19, 2026 · Royal Birkdale
How the market has moved on every golfer since we started tracking this field — built entirely from our own stored price history. Steaming in means the price is shortening (more backed); drifting means it's getting longer.
Win probability over time
6 sportsbooks in consensusDe-vigged consensus win probability for the top contenders — plus the field's biggest riser — rebuilt from every price move our tracker has recorded for this event.
Sam Burns17.3%Ryan Fox13.8%Cameron Young8.3%Si Woo Kim7.6%Ludvig Aberg2.7%Bryson DeChambeau2.6%Ryan Gerard2.6%· riser
Market-implied from de-vigged sportsbook outright boards; prediction markets excluded. Times ET.
Tracked across 18939 recorded price moves.
Steaming in
Matt Fitzpatrick+2485 → +1620Pre-tee +1620 · Pinnacle3.9% → 5.8%+1.9 pts
Minwoo Lee+10299 → +5135Pre-tee +5135 · Pinnacle0.96% → 1.9%+0.9 pts
Viktor Hovland+4176 → +2983Pre-tee +2983 · Pinnacle2.3% → 3.2%+0.9 pts
Chris Gotterup+5105 → +3515Pre-tee +3515 · Pinnacle1.9% → 2.8%+0.8 pts
Si Woo Kim+7299 → +4668Pre-tee +4668 · Pinnacle1.4% → 2.1%+0.7 pts
Robert MacIntyre+3238 → +2782Pre-tee +2782 · Pinnacle3.0% → 3.5%+0.5 pts- Collin Morikawa+3571 → +3093Pre-tee +3093 · Pinnacle2.7% → 3.1%+0.4 pts
- Alex Fitzpatrick+8219 → +6334Pre-tee +6334 · Pinnacle1.2% → 1.6%+0.4 pts
- Tommy Fleetwood+1705 → +1605Pre-tee +1605 · Pinnacle5.5% → 5.9%+0.3 pts
- Ben Griffin+10201 → +8022Pre-tee +8022 · Pinnacle0.97% → 1.2%+0.3 pts
- Rickie Fowler+14603 → +10652Pre-tee +10652 · Pinnacle0.68% → 0.93%+0.2 pts
- Ryan Gerard+17096 → +12039Pre-tee +12039 · Pinnacle0.58% → 0.82%+0.2 pts
Drifting out
- Scottie Scheffler+459 → +814Pre-tee +814 · Pinnacle17.9% → 10.9%-6.9 pts
Jon Rahm+1377 → +2619Pre-tee +2619 · Pinnacle6.8% → 3.7%-3.1 pts
Rory McIlroy+756 → +1030Pre-tee +1030 · Pinnacle11.7% → 8.8%-2.8 pts- Xander Schauffele+1764 → +3286Pre-tee +3286 · Pinnacle5.4% → 3.0%-2.4 pts
- Bryson DeChambeau+2674 → +8096Pre-tee +8096 · Pinnacle3.6% → 1.2%-2.4 pts
- Cameron Young+2196 → +4369Pre-tee +4369 · Pinnacle4.4% → 2.2%-2.1 pts
Ludvig Aberg+2128 → +3771Pre-tee +3771 · Pinnacle4.5% → 2.6%-1.9 pts- Dustin Johnson+6500 → +25000Pre-tee +25000 · FanDuel1.5% → 0.40%-1.1 pts
Shane Lowry+3465 → +5789Pre-tee +5789 · Pinnacle2.8% → 1.7%-1.1 pts- Brooks Koepka+4954 → +9008Pre-tee +9008 · Pinnacle2.0% → 1.1%-0.9 pts
Sepp Straka+8138 → +23207Pre-tee +23207 · Pinnacle1.2% → 0.43%-0.8 pts
Jayden Schaper+10000 → +35000Pre-tee +35000 · FanDuel0.99% → 0.28%-0.7 pts
Movement is computed from GolfOdds's own append-only odds history. This event is complete; prices shown stop at the verified pre-tee boundary.