U.S. Open Odds Movement 2026
FinalJun 18–21, 2026 · Oakmont Country Club
How the market has moved on every golfer since we started tracking this field — built entirely from our own stored price history. Steaming in means the price is shortening (more backed); drifting means it's getting longer.
Win probability over time
6 sportsbooks in consensusDe-vigged consensus win probability for the top contenders — plus the field's biggest riser — rebuilt from every price move our tracker has recorded for this event.
Wyndham Clark45.9%Scottie Scheffler5.7%Jon Rahm4.9%Sam Burns4.0%Bryson DeChambeau2.3%Xander Schauffele1.5%Tom Kim1.3%· riser
Market-implied from de-vigged sportsbook outright boards; prediction markets excluded. Times ET.
Tracked across 9625 recorded price moves.
Steaming in
Sam Burns+6640 → +3954Pre-tee +3954 · Pinnacle1.5% → 2.5%+1.0 pts
Tommy Fleetwood+2485 → +1970Pre-tee +1970 · Pinnacle3.9% → 4.8%+1.0 pts- Matt Fitzpatrick+2578 → +2103Pre-tee +2103 · Pinnacle3.7% → 4.5%+0.8 pts
- Kurt Kitayama+12347 → +7465Pre-tee +7465 · Pinnacle0.80% → 1.3%+0.5 pts
Cameron Smith+12331 → +7900Pre-tee +7900 · Pinnacle0.80% → 1.3%+0.4 pts- Xander Schauffele+2011 → +1848Pre-tee +1848 · Pinnacle4.7% → 5.1%+0.4 pts
- Patrick Reed+5584 → +4545Pre-tee +4545 · Pinnacle1.8% → 2.2%+0.4 pts
- Maverick McNealy+10025 → +7433Pre-tee +7433 · Pinnacle0.99% → 1.3%+0.3 pts
Si Woo Kim+4063 → +3596Pre-tee +3596 · Pinnacle2.4% → 2.7%+0.3 pts- Adam Scott+11223 → +9048Pre-tee +9048 · Pinnacle0.88% → 1.1%+0.2 pts
- Harris English+11086 → +9108Pre-tee +9108 · Pinnacle0.89% → 1.1%+0.2 pts
- JJ Spaun+7262 → +6436Pre-tee +6436 · Pinnacle1.4% → 1.5%+0.2 pts
Drifting out
Rory McIlroy+803 → +1321Pre-tee +1321 · Pinnacle11.1% → 7.0%-4.0 pts- Scottie Scheffler+510 → +626Pre-tee +626 · Pinnacle16.4% → 13.8%-2.6 pts
- Bryson DeChambeau+2263 → +3732Pre-tee +3732 · Pinnacle4.2% → 2.6%-1.6 pts
- Cameron Young+1768 → +2502Pre-tee +2502 · Pinnacle5.4% → 3.8%-1.5 pts
Ludvig Aberg+1779 → +2323Pre-tee +2323 · Pinnacle5.3% → 4.1%-1.2 pts- Collin Morikawa+3250 → +5402Pre-tee +5402 · Pinnacle3.0% → 1.8%-1.2 pts
Jon Rahm+1414 → +1644Pre-tee +1644 · Pinnacle6.6% → 5.7%-0.9 pts- Brooks Koepka+3374 → +4691Pre-tee +4691 · Pinnacle2.9% → 2.1%-0.8 pts
Hideki Matsuyama+5104 → +8074Pre-tee +8074 · Pinnacle1.9% → 1.2%-0.7 pts
Sepp Straka+7328 → +14403Pre-tee +14403 · Pinnacle1.3% → 0.69%-0.7 pts- Justin Thomas+4257 → +6001Pre-tee +6001 · Pinnacle2.3% → 1.6%-0.7 pts
- Ben Griffin+6177 → +10317Pre-tee +10317 · Pinnacle1.6% → 0.96%-0.6 pts
Movement is computed from GolfOdds's own append-only odds history. This event is complete; prices shown stop at the verified pre-tee boundary.